Month: December 2025

America’s Economy Is Growing

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But Only If You’re Standing in the Right Place

Every few weeks, a politician steps up to a podium and declares that “the economy is strong.” And in strictly mathematical terms, they’re right. The U.S. economy grew at a 3.8% annualized pace in the second quarter of 2025 — the fastest since 2023 — after dipping into negative territory earlier this year. Inflation has cooled from its post-pandemic highs, and unemployment sits near 4.4%.

But the story the numbers tell is not the story Americans are living. Because when you look closely — at who is benefitting, who is being left behind, and what lies ahead — the truth becomes clear: the U.S. economy works brilliantly if you already have wealth, stability, and assets. If you don’t, you are navigating an economic system that gives you occasional crumbs while telling you to be grateful.

The truth is this: the U.S. economy is on track for one of three futures, and each reveal who this system is built to serve. What’s striking is that in all but the rosiest scenario, working families are once again asked to carry the burden while corporations, speculators, and the ultra-wealthy skate by untouched.

1. The Best-Case Scenario: A “Soft Landing” That Still Leaves Millions Behind

In the most optimistic version of the next two years, inflation continues easing, growth stays positive, and unemployment levels off. Economists call this a “soft landing.” Sounds good — until you ask who lands softly.

Even in the best case, housing remains unaffordable, wages lag behind the real cost of living, and corporate profits continue to soar. The wealthy glide through turbulence in private jets; working Americans are crammed into economy seating, still waiting for a drink of water.

This scenario isn’t a triumph — it’s the bare minimum a functional economy should deliver. Yet we’ve been conditioned to treat stability as success because for decades both major parties have tiptoed around corporate power while leaving structural inequality intact.

In the most optimistic version of the next year or two, inflation continues drifting toward the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target, wages grow modestly, and GDP holds steady around 2 percent. That’s the baseline many forecasters expect.

But this so-called “soft landing” doesn’t mean the economy suddenly becomes fair. It just means we avoid a recession.

Even in this best-case world, the cost of living stays punishingly high. Housing affordability remains in crisis. Healthcare remains a luxury disguised as a necessity. And while corporate profits bounce upward — as they reliably do — wage growth for most workers lags behind real costs.

A soft landing for Wall Street is not the same as a soft landing for everyone else. The economy may stabilize, but inequality keeps widening.

2. The Most Likely Scenario: Patchwork Growth for a Patchwork Nation

The more realistic outlook is a lopsided, uneven expansion — a recovery where Wall Street thrives while Main Street treads water. GDP grows, but modestly. Inflation cools, but never for the things people need. Unemployment rises just enough to make workers afraid to push for better pay.

This “patchwork growth” won’t feel like a recovery to most Americans. Families will keep juggling second jobs, skipping medical care, and draining savings. Meanwhile, companies facing mild economic uncertainty will do what they always do: tighten hiring, cut hours, and funnel more money upward through stock buybacks.

And let’s be honest — this isn’t an accident. It’s the predictable outcome of an economic system that prioritizes shareholder value over human value. We’ve allowed an entire generation to grow up believing insecurity is the natural price of capitalism. It’s not. It’s a policy choice.

The most likely scenario is simple: uneven, unequal, and deeply fragile growth. GDP increases just enough to avoid panic — about 1.7% according to median forecasts — but not enough to lift the millions who have been treading water for years.  Inflation remains sticky at around 2.7–2.8%.  That may sound tolerable, but price increases for essentials — rent, utilities, groceries, childcare — hit harder and last longer for families who already sacrifice everything just to get by.

Businesses, spooked by political instability and global tensions, respond predictably: they slow hiring, squeeze workers, and avoid wage increases. Workers feel the pinch long before CEOs do. This is the “patchwork economy” we live in — where the wealthy enjoy record stock valuations while everyone else faces rising costs and shrinking options.

This is not economic inevitability. It is the predictable outcome of forty years of deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy, union-busting, and a bipartisan refusal to invest in the social protections Americans need.

3. The Downside Scenario: A Slow-Motion Recession That Hits the Vulnerable First

If the economy slips, it won’t be CEOs or hedge fund managers who feel the pain. A “slow-motion recession” — the third scenario — would mean rising unemployment, shrinking paychecks, and a sharp decline in consumer spending. And once again, the people who already have the least will lose the most.

Working families, still recovering from decades of wage stagnation, have no cushion left. They’ve weathered a pandemic, inflation, housing spikes, and political dysfunction. A recession, even a mild one, could tip millions into crisis. And no one should be surprised: the economy has been built this way. Recession for workers is merely a quarterly inconvenience for the wealthy.

Yet the political class will inevitably lecture us about “belt-tightening” and “budget discipline” — as if families who skipped dental care, childcare, and vacations for the last five years have any belt left to tighten.

If inflation remains stubborn, or tariffs and interest-rate pressures collide, the economy could slip into what economists politely call a “mild recession.” This would mean layoffs, reduced hours, rising unemployment, and a renewed assault on household stability.

Several major economic surveys warn that under downside conditions, 2026 real GDP could drop toward 0.9%, with recession probability between 30 and 50 percent. Unemployment could push toward 5–6% — enough to tip millions into crisis.

But recessions in America are never evenly felt. The wealthy lose some stock value, perhaps delay a vacation. Meanwhile, working families cascade from “just keeping up” to “falling behind,” to “falling apart.”

No one should pretend this would be a surprise. When an entire economic system is built on low wages, high prices, and private profit, the people at the bottom are always the shock absorbers.

The Real Question: Who Is the Economy For?

Across these scenarios, one truth holds: America’s economy functions well for the top 10%, decently for the next 30%, and unpredictably or painfully for everyone else. That is not a natural phenomenon. That is the result of choices — deregulation, tax cuts for the wealthy, union-busting, underfunded social programs, and an economic ideology obsessed with markets but allergic to fairness.

A country as wealthy as the United States should not accept an economy where millions live on the brink even during “good times.” Stability for a few is not prosperity. Growth that bypasses working people is not success. And an economy that only thrives when inequality expands is not healthy — it is predatory.

The Work Ahead

If we want a future that doesn’t simply oscillate between fragile growth and preventable hardship, we need policies that center human well-being: strong labor protections, fair taxation, affordable housing, universal healthcare, and public investment that benefits communities rather than shareholders.

The choice isn’t between growth and fairness. The choice is between an economy built for everyone — and the economy we have now.

T. Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com

Chief Justice John Roberts

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OLD and QUIRKY

From Conservative Strategist to Chief Justice of a Court He Can No Longer Control

For years, Chief Justice John Roberts was hailed—mostly by Beltway moderates desperate to find a “reasonable” conservative—as the last adult in the room. The sober institutionalist. The guardian of the Court’s legitimacy. The conservative who understood that you don’t burn the house down just because you finally got the matches.

But the truth is far less flattering: John Roberts didn’t save the Court from extremism. He midwifed it. He curated it. And now, like Dr. Frankenstein watching his monster rampage through the village, he’s horrified that he’s no longer the one in charge.

Roberts’ evolution isn’t a story of a principled jurist tempering his ideology. It’s the story of a Republican operative who spent decades dismantling democratic safeguards—voting rights, campaign finance limits, corporate accountability—only to recoil when a more radical generation of conservatives used those very tools to push the country off a cliff.

The Strategist Who Mistook Himself for a Statesman

Roberts rose through the conservative legal movement carefully, methodically, strategically. He wasn’t the bomb-thrower; he was the man smoothing the shrapnel, packaging hard-right outcomes in pretty, technocratic prose. His entire judicial philosophy was camouflage: causing massive ideological shifts, but made them look modest.

His decision in Shelby County v. Holder—gutting the Voting Rights Act—was a masterpiece of this dreary craft. He pretended that racial discrimination in voting had magically evaporated, then acted shocked when states sprinted to reinstate voter suppression laws.

This was Roberts’ signature: deregulate the powerful, weaken protections for vulnerable communities, and then express mild surprise when the powerful seize even more power.

Then Came the Monster He Helped Build

For a decade, Roberts controlled the Court by managing Justice Kennedy’s ego and projecting a veneer of institutional neutrality. But once the far-right legal movement captured the Court outright—with Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett—Roberts became irrelevant.

And nothing infuriates a man like Roberts more than being irrelevant.

Suddenly he was the “moderate,” not because he changed, but because the rest of the conservative bloc stopped pretending. They didn’t care about incrementalism. They didn’t care about public trust. They didn’t care about Roberts’ obsession with legitimacy. They wanted maximalist rulings, and they wanted them now.

Dobbs was the humiliation heard round the world. Roberts begged for a “compromise,” a middle-ground fantasy where abortion rights could be gutted but not eradicated. The new majority waved him off like an annoyed parent. They had the votes, and they were done with Roberts’ slow-drip revolution.

Roberts Wants to Save the Court From a Crisis He Caused

Roberts keeps warning that the Court risks losing the public’s trust—as if he had no role in setting the stage for its collapse. It was Roberts who weakened the Voting Rights Act. Roberts who empowered billionaire donors in Citizens United. Roberts who shielded corporate interests repeatedly. Roberts who insisted, with a straight face, that the Court is not political even as he stacked the deck for conservative victories.

And now he wants to play umpire while the game burns down.

Roberts didn’t lose control of the Court because he’s a moderate; he lost control because the right-wing legal movement he nurtured no longer needs his caution or his respectability. They have the majority. They have power. And the mask—his mask—is off.

Roberts’ Legacy Is the Court’s Crisis

History won’t remember Roberts as the savior of judicial legitimacy. It will remember him as the architect of the Court’s collapse into partisanship—a man who spent years quietly eroding the foundation of democracy only to be shocked when the roof finally caved in.

He wanted to steer a conservative revolution from the comfort of technocratic respectability. Instead, he built a machine that outran him. He fed the beast, and now it answers to someone else.

John Roberts evolved, all right—not into a moderate, but into a cautionary tale: a conservative who played with fire, insisted it was safe, and now stands in the ashes pretending not to smell the smoke.

T. Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com

How Citizens United Broke America’s Democracy

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OLD and QUIRKY

Why the Billionaires Want You to Forget It

There are a lot of villains in the slow-motion sabotage of American democracy, but few have done more damage—with such smug self-righteousness—than the Supreme Court’s conservative majority in Citizens United v. FEC. With a single ruling, they didn’t just unleash corporate money into politics. They handed the keys of American democracy to the ultra-wealthy and told the rest of us to enjoy the ride.

The right loves to blame polarization, misinformation, even “wokeness” for the chaos in politics. But let’s be honest: the rot set in when the Court declared that corporations are political actors with constitutional rights and billionaires can drown the public square in money if they call it “independent spending.”

It was the judicial equivalent of opening all the vaults on Wall Street and telling the bankers, “Go wild.” And they did.

A Democracy of Donors, Not Voters

Since the ruling, politics has become a playground for the richest Americans—a system where a handful of billionaires can bankroll entire elections, sculpt policy, and effectively decide who even gets a shot at running for office. Working people donate in $20 increments: Sheldon Adelson and Michael Bloomberg toss in $100 million like they’re tipping a bartender.

This isn’t free speech. It’s financial dominance.

The conservative justices insisted that unlimited spending would not corrupt politics because it was technically “independent.” That’s like claiming a hurricane isn’t dangerous because the wind and water don’t officially coordinate. The reality is obvious: when politicians know a super PAC can vaporize their career with a tsunami of attack ads, they behave accordingly. It’s silent extortion, baked into the system.

Dark Money: The Shadow Government

Worse still, Citizens United opened the floodgates for dark money—funds from anonymous donors funneled through nonprofits that exist solely to hide who’s really pulling the levers.

These groups bankroll everything:

  • judicial confirmation blitzes
  • anti-union campaigns
  • disinformation networks
  • climate denial operations
  • statewide ballot fights
  • and candidate-centered propaganda masquerading as “issue ads”

It’s a shadow government with no accountability and no transparency, operating because five justices thought disclosure requirements might “chill speech.” What it chills is democracy.

Policy Written for the Few, Paid for by the Few

There’s a reason Congress can’t pass wildly popular policies like taxing billionaires, raising wages, strengthening unions, or protecting abortion rights. Donors don’t want them.

There’s a reason fossil fuel companies keep winning legislative battles even as the planet burns. Donors pay handsomely for political insulation.

There’s a reason health care remains a corporate profit engine instead of a public good. Dark money groups fueled by insurance executives spend tens of millions to ensure nothing changes.

This is not dysfunction. It’s design.

Public Trust Has Collapsed—and That Was the Point

Americans know the system is rigged. They feel it every time a policy with 70–80% support dies in committee while billionaires get another round of tax cuts. They see it when candidates who appeal to grassroots voters get buried under a flood of super PAC money.

The right often accuses the left of being cynical about institutions. But cynicism didn’t break our faith in democracy. Citizens United did.

The Billionaires Don’t Want Reform—They Want Silence

Every time someone proposes overturning Citizens United, strengthening disclosure laws, or implementing public financing, the same chorus emerges: “You’re trying to limit speech.”

No. We’re trying to resurrect democracy from the ruins your “speech” left behind.

The truth is simple: the only people who benefit from Citizens United are the people with enough money to buy political power. Everyone else pays the price—in weaker protections, broken institutions, and a political system that treats citizens like spectators instead of participants.

It Has to End

A democracy cannot survive when the wealthiest Americans have more political influence than millions of voters combined. The idea that corporations are people with constitutional rights is a lie. The idea that billionaires’ spending is harmless is a fantasy. And the idea that this system is sustainable is delusional.

Citizens United must be overturned—by constitutional amendment, by new disclosure laws, or by a Court that finally remembers democracy matters more than donor privileges.

Until then, the United States will remain a country where elections are technically free, but political power is anything but.

T. Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com