America’s Military Might

Is It Enough for Lasting Peace?

For decades, the United States has held the greatest military advantage in the world. Its aircraft carriers, intelligence networks, advanced weapons systems, and global alliances have given it unmatched power. Yet history has repeatedly shown that military strength alone does not guarantee political success.

The war with Iran this year highlights a difficult reality: a country can win battles and still struggle to win the peace. The long-term consequences will not be determined only by missiles destroyed or military targets hit. They will be determined by what happens after the fighting ends — and whether leaders learn the lessons of the past.

The United States entered this conflict with overwhelming conventional military superiority. Iran could not compete directly with American forces. But Iran has spent decades preparing for a different kind of conflict — one based on endurance, regional influence, unconventional strategies for warfare, and making any confrontation costly.

This has been Iran’s strategy: if it cannot defeat the United States militarily, it can make victory politically complicated.

America’s Lost Advantage Was Not Military — It Was Strategic

The United States once had significant leverage over Iran. The nuclear agreement negotiated during the Obama administration created international inspections and placed limits on Iran’s nuclear program. It was imperfect, but it provided something valuable: visibility and diplomatic influence. (Washington Post)

When the agreement collapsed under Trump and the United States returned to a maximum-pressure strategy. The goal was to force Iran into accepting broader restrictions. Instead, Iran adapted.

Years of sanctions damaged Iran’s economy, but they also pushed Iran to develop survival strategies, strengthen ties with countries like China and Russia, and build a more independent military capability.

The lesson is uncomfortable: economic pressure can weaken a country without changing its government’s behavior.  Iran learned that it could absorb punishment and continue operating. The United States still had more power, but Iran became better at using the tools available to it.

The Unintended Consequences of War

The immediate goal of military action may have been to weaken Iran’s capabilities. But the political consequences are much harder to control. When  there is no plan it is difficult to keep up with the opposition.

External attacks often create the very unity that governments lack during times of internal crisis. Iran’s leadership can use the conflict to argue that the country is under attack and that opposition must be suppressed in the name of national security.

A government facing foreign pressure often becomes more defensive and more authoritarian. The war may have weakened Iran’s military infrastructure, but it has strengthened hardliners who argue that compromise with the West is impossible. (Reuters)

This is one of the great contradictions of modern warfare: a strike intended to weaken a government can sometimes strengthen its political position.

The Iraq and Afghanistan Lessons

The United States has learned repeatedly that destroying an enemy’s military capacity is easier than creating lasting political stability.

In Iraq and Afghanistan, America demonstrated its ability to win major military campaigns. The greater challenge was building governments, maintaining public support, and preventing instability after the fighting ended.

Iran presents an even more complex challenge. It is a large country with a deep national identity, a long history, and a government that has survived decades of pressure. The question is not whether the United States can strike Iran.

The Question is what happens the day after? 

Without a political strategy, military success can become the opening chapter of a longer conflict.  The Trump administration did not have a coherent war plan given that the Secretary of Defense is an idiot. And clearly the agreement we signed demonstrates the lack of a political strategy.

Trump signed the deal with Iran to advance peace talks and convince Americans that the war was a win.  Of course, the agreement achieves none of the goals that Trump claimed would emerge. And Iran gains access to billions of dollars to rebuild the consequences of the war.  A win? (Washington Post)

What will happen is a resupply of the oil market, lower gas prices, and allowing Republicans the time to regain their focus on the midterms.

A More Dangerous Middle East?

The war also changes the regional balance of power. Iran’s influence may be reduced, but it is unlikely to disappear. Tehran has spent years building relationships with groups and governments across the region. If weakened, Iran may rely even more on indirect methods:

  • proxy forces
  • cyber operations
  • missile threats and drones
  • political influence campaigns

A weaker Iran does not automatically mean a safer Middle East. The danger is that the conflict creates a new cycle: retaliation, escalation, and another generation growing up with war as the normal condition. (Reuters)

The Global Consequences

The impact extends beyond the Middle East. Energy markets, inflation, global shipping, and international alliances are all affected by instability in the region. A prolonged conflict could increase defense spending while forcing governments to make difficult choices about domestic priorities.

China and Russia also benefit strategically from American attention being focused on another major conflict. Every prolonged U.S. military engagement creates opportunities for competitors to expand their influence elsewhere.

The Nuclear Question

Perhaps the most important long-term consequence involves Iran’s nuclear ambitions. A country that believes it can be attacked at any time may conclude that only a nuclear deterrent can guarantee survival. That does not make nuclear weapons acceptable. It demonstrates the dangerous logic that can develop when diplomacy collapses.

The world has seen this before: insecurity can drive nations toward the very weapons everyone is trying to prevent them from obtaining.

America’s Real Test

The United States faces a larger question than whether it can defeat Iran militarily.

It must answer whether it has a strategy for creating stability after the conflict. American power remains unmatched, but power without a political plan has limits. The greatest danger is not losing a battle. The greatest danger is winning the battle while creating the conditions for the next war.

The true measure of success will not be how much damage was done to Iran. It will be whether the United States and its allies can build a more stable future — one where diplomacy replaces endless cycles of confrontation.

Because history’s warning is clear:

Winning a war is a military achievement. Winning the peace is a political one.

T. Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com

THE PROUD BOYS et al.

Far-right Nationalist Organizations

The Proud Boys are a far-right nationalist organization founded in 2016 by White nationalist Gavin McInnes, a media personality and co-founder of Vice Media. The group describes itself as “Western chauvinist,” arguing that Western culture is superior and should be defended. However, critics, civil rights organizations, and many researchers have characterized the group as extremist. They cite its history of political violence and associations with white nationalist and anti-democratic movements.

What the group believes

The Proud Boys generally promote nationalism and strong border enforcement. They oppose what they call “political correctness,” left-wing political movements, and traditional gender roles. They have a confrontational style of street activism.

The organization officially states that it is not white supremacist and has included members of different racial backgrounds. However, critics point to repeated collaborations and overlaps with white nationalist activists and extremist groups at various events.

Why they became nationally known

The Proud Boys gained widespread attention through frequent clashes with left-wing protesters in cities across the United States. They played a role a in political rallies during the Trump campaigns. Also, there was a 2020 presidential debate in which President Donald Trump told the group to “stand back and stand by,” a remark that generated significant controversy.

January 6 and criminal convictions

The group’s most consequential involvement was in the events surrounding the January 6 United States Capitol attack. In particular, federal prosecutors argued that several Proud Boys leaders helped organize and direct actions. These actions contributed to the breach of the Capitol.

Among those convicted was chairman Enrique Tarrio, along with other senior members. They received some of the most serious sentences handed down in connection with January 6. This happened after they were convicted of offenses including seditious conspiracy. Many were pardoned.

Why the group remains controversial

Supporters often portray the Proud Boys as a nationalist activist organization defending free speech and opposing left-wing extremism.

Critics argue that the group’s rhetoric and activities have encouraged political violence. They served as a gateway between mainstream political activism and more extreme movements. Their actions have contributed to political polarization and intimidation.

As a result, the Proud Boys occupy a significant place in debates about extremism, political violence, civil liberties, and the health of American democracy. Furthermore, their impact extends beyond the organization itself. They have become a symbol of broader tensions over nationalism, identity, and the limits of political activism in the United States.

The Proud Boys have remained active, although their activities appear different from their peak period around 2020–2021.

Recent reporting and monitoring organizations indicate that Proud Boys chapters continue to participate in demonstrations, counter-protests, and political events, particularly in states such as Florida. For example, some chapters have appeared at immigration-related demonstrations and “No Kings” protests in 2025–2026.

There have also been highly visible appearances by former Proud Boys chairman Enrique Tarrio following his release from prison. He participated in public events and marches related to January 6 commemorations and other political gatherings in 2026. (NBC4 Washington)

However, researchers who track extremist groups note that the organization is more fragmented than it was before the January 6 Capitol attack. Some chapters have split from national leadership. Local groups often operate independently. Moreover, there has been a shift in some areas from large street confrontations toward local political organizing and online activity. (AXIOS)

The group continues to be described by organizations such as the Anti-Defamation League as a right-wing extremist organization. They note its history of political violence and intimidation.

The Proud Boys occupy a somewhat different place in the far-right landscape than groups such as the Oath Keepers or Patriot Front. While there is overlap in membership, rhetoric, and political goals, the groups differ in organization, recruitment, and tactics.

The Oath Keepers

Oath Keepers have traditionally focused on recruiting current and former military personnel, law enforcement officers, and first responders.

Characteristics: more militia-oriented structure, strong anti-government ideology, emphasis on armed preparedness. Other traits include claims of defending constitutional liberties against government overreach and major involvement by members in January 6.

Unlike the Proud Boys, the Oath Keepers generally present themselves less as a street-protest movement and more as a self-styled constitutional militia.

Patriot Front

Patriot Front is generally viewed by researchers as more explicitly white nationalist than the Proud Boys.

Characteristics:  highly disciplined and centralized, uniform appearance and coordinated marches, focus on nationalist propaganda campaigns, less emphasis on spontaneous public confrontations, and strong emphasis on white identity politics.  Patriot Front’s messaging tends to be more ideological. In contrast, it is less focused on the culture-war activism associated with the Proud Boys.

Active Clubs

The “Active Club” movement is a newer trend rather than a single organization.

Characteristics: small decentralized cells, physical fitness and combat training, mixed martial arts culture, heavy emphasis on local recruitment, and attempts to avoid the public visibility that hurt older groups.

Many extremism researchers view Active Clubs as potentially significant because they focus on building networks quietly rather than seeking media attention.

The Threat Posed by Right-Wing Extremist Groups: A Summary

Right-wing extremist groups represent a continuing concern for law enforcement, researchers, and democratic institutions because some have embraced political intimidation, violence, or anti-democratic rhetoric in pursuit of their goals. While these groups vary widely in ideology and tactics, they often share a belief that the nation is under threat from political, cultural, or demographic changes and that extraordinary action is justified to stop those changes.

Groups such as the Proud Boys, Oath Keepers, and Patriot Front differ in structure and messaging, but concerns arise when members engage in political violence, harassment, armed intimidation, or efforts to undermine democratic processes. The threat is not limited to organized groups; decentralized networks and lone actors inspired by extremist ideologies can also pose significant risks.

One of the greatest dangers is the normalization of political violence. Democracies depend on citizens resolving disputes through elections, courts, public debate, and peaceful protest. When movements portray opponents as enemies rather than fellow citizens, violence can begin to appear justified to some supporters. History shows that democratic erosion often starts not with a single dramatic event but with a gradual acceptance of intimidation and political extremism.

The challenge for a democratic society is to protect constitutional rights—including free speech, assembly, and political advocacy—while responding effectively to groups or individuals who cross the line into violence, intimidation, or efforts to subvert democratic institutions. Maintaining that balance is essential to preserving both security and liberty.

T, Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com

Stop Calling Americans Ignorant

Start Fixing the Incentives That Drive Engagement

It has become a lazy reflex in politics and the media: blame “the uninformed public, they are ignorant.” If only people paid attention our problems would shrink. That story is comforting—and wrong.

What looks like ignorance is often adaptation.

The modern American is buried under a constant barrage of information: wars, elections, scandals, economic swings. Then there is streaming 24/7 through platforms like Facebook, YouTube, and TikTok. No one can process it all. So people triage. They skim headlines, trust familiar voices, and tune out what doesn’t immediately affect their lives. That’s not stupidity; it’s survival.

And here is some hard truth: being well-informed does not pay. You don’t get a raise for understanding trade policy. And you do not get rewarded for reading beyond the headline. You do, however, risk social friction for challenging your own side or raising uncomfortable facts. In a system that punishes nuance and rewards certainty, most people make the rational choice—stay at the surface. They are not ignorant, but are realists.

The information ecosystem is engineered for engagement, not truth. The algorithms driving today’s media reward outrage, simplify complexity, and feed people what they already believe. Inside those bubbles, people don’t feel uninformed—they feel validated. The result isn’t a nation of contented ignoramuses. Citizens of our nation believe they’re informed because the system keeps telling them they are. Is this being ignorant?

Then there’s the quiet force no one wants to name: resignation. After years of political gridlock, broken promises, and high-stakes crises with little visible resolution, many Americans have internalized a corrosive idea—nothing I do matters. That belief doesn’t produce curiosity. It produces withdrawal.

Add in the realities of everyday life—long hours, rising costs, family obligations—and the picture sharpens. The single parent working two jobs isn’t choosing to be ignorant; they’re choosing what keeps the lights on. Time is a prerequisite for attention, and millions simply don’t have it.

So no, the public isn’t broadly “content” in ignorant behavior. Americans are constrained by a system that makes deep engagement costly.

That distinction matters, because it points to a different solution. If you want people to re-engage, lecturing them won’t work. Neither will drowning them in more information. What moves people is relevance—when an issue hits their wallet, their safety, their family. What moves people is trust—when the message comes from someone who understands their reality. And what moves people most is agency—the belief that their action, however small, actually changes something.

The failure isn’t just on the audience. It’s on a political and media culture that confuses volume with clarity, outrage with insight, and access to information with understanding.

If we keep calling the public ignorant, we’ll keep getting the same result: a checked-out citizenry and a broken conversation. If we start asking why people disengage—and fix the incentives that drive it—we might get something better.

MAGA politicians are counting on voters’ despondency and cynicism to make the reimposition of Jim Crow a pain-free process for themselves. But Democrats’ refuse to concede and their determination to build momentum, using key events and political battles to drive organization and turnout, will aid their fight to flip the House.  Plus, it will help the long-term mission to restore democracy.

Not a perfect electorate. That’s a fantasy.

But an engaged one. That’s enough to change everything.

T. Michael Smith

wwwtmichaelsmith.com